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Pitchfork © 2010
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Freely quote with attribution

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Do not foresee a moment, a battling; foresee two years and more, a
warring.  Pitchfork

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The Survival Box: Stage 3

Stage 3 (including Note 1 and Note 2 below) begins immediately after Stage 2 is satisfactorily done with, noting possible consideration of adapting to individual interests, etc.* . . .

NOTE 1: FOR THOSE MORE FOCUSED ON MARKETS THAN MONIES, ONE MIGHT BE MOVED TO CONSIDER, SAY ONLY FOR EXAMPLE'S SAKE, 6% USD, AND 2% MORE OR LESS EVENLY BETWEEN SECURITIES, SUCH AS, SIL, SLW, GDX, GDJX, DXD, SDS, AND XFX - AKIN TO A DOOMSDAY PORTFOLIO OF SORTS.  EASILY BOT, SOLD, AND CONVERTED TO USD FOR DEPOSIT OR ELSE = 25% OF THE SURVIVAL BOX AND 100% OF SEGMENT 2.  NOTABLY, ONE MIGHT COULD EXTEND SUCH DISTRIBUTION TO SEGMENT 3 SURVIVAL STUFF AT THE OUTSET UNTIL SEGMENTS 1,4 ARE SETTLED AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWN DOWN ON SURVIVAL STUFF AS NEEDS ARISE.  PLEASE NOTE WELL THAT THE SO-CALLED PRECIOUS METAL PAPER ETFs ARE NOT INCLUDED BY THE 'FORK, BECAUSE OF WHAT HE UNDERSTANDS FROM READING A BARRAGE OF DISSING FROM FOLKS WHOM HE THINKS KNOW WAY MORE ABOUT THIS ASPECT OF PRECIOUS METAL OWNERSHIP FOR SURVIVAL OR ELSE.

NOTE 2: WOULD THAT ANY OF THE CURRENCY ETF'S LABELED IN THE SEGMENT 2 WERE INTO 'BEGGAR THY NEIGHBOR' COMPETITIVE DEVALUATION, 'FORK OPINES THAT HE WOULDN'T TOUCH 'EM, INCLUDING THE SWISS AND THEIR FRANC, EITHER DIRECTLY OR DERIVATIVELY THROUGH EU MEMBERSHIP.

• Divisions of The Survival Box have come to a settlement

  • Bullion is half of The Survival Box’s value

  • Cash is further divided in segment 2, the 4 shares of which segment go to 3 non-USD currencies (either money in hand or in specific currencies’ ETFs) and USD cash in the fourth of the quarters of segment 2

Comment:  Segment 2 maybe be considered otherwise divisible either in numbers of cubbies or in selected contents or both, noting 2 points:  leave enough in USD to backfill shortfalls for those now and then times; keep media realtime-close to full liquidity to USD.

Comment:  It is not beyond ‘Fork’s thoughts that owner-access to owner account(s) in ETFs, etc. may be severely or completely restricted or the account(s) maybe even confiscated in some exchange control scenarios; hence, vigilance is suggested, as is willingness and preparation to sell off quickly to bullion or else so that those assets may be more closely held.

In time, it may become calming, common sensical, and conservational to move out of the shares market altogether.

Comment:  There’s no saying against a greater exposure to silver and gold by coin purchase in lieu of other currency purchase, or coins’ surrogates at least for the time-being, the ETFs being squeezed out of Segment 1.  These substitutions are among your own alternatives.

Comment:  Please note well that in achieving this example of The Survival Box: Stage 3, ‘Fork has reduced direct exposure of The Box’s value to USD down to something akin to 1/16^th (≈ 6.25%/100%) of the total value of The Box at the get-go.

• Survival Stuff taking up the segment 3 quarter in its entirety of Stuff: 1 and Stuff :2.

• This ‘final resting place’ of Stage 3 should likely not be nearly as orderly as depicted, equally quartered throughout; nor, for that matter should it as well not likely so neatly arranged in Stage 2’s pictorial, though basing on mark to book values should be of major benefit to time and temperament

  • Overall, The Box should be bigger through time relative to Stage 1, i.e., have more value in it, or grow in relative size, the result of . . .

    • Especially the monetized value increase of the bullion

    • Less so, but not without significance, the Survival Stuff 1 & 2 will have appreciated more possibly for at least some bullets and for most consumables and some accoutrements, e.g., grain grinder(s), no matter how you allocate Survival Stuff acquisitions between goods based on your own needs, wants, intentions, expectations, and capacities

    • Non-USD currency holdings should be expected to increase in value as the USD continues its debased devaluation

    • USD Cash should be expected to have shriveled in size within The Box to leave enough for gotta-be intermediated money transfers, albeit adjusted for inflation or devaluation or both

Comment: ‘Fork’s opinions about how much each component of The Box grows or shrinks are notwithstanding realities unknown as of this writing, except for texted and drawn notions of directions of larger and smaller than originally defined.

• Please note that ‘Fork indicates some diversity of the cash position into other-country currencies

  • This indication, most especially in terms of personal possession of another country’s money, may be more wishful than practical

    • Such transfers may be prohibited in an exchange control environment

    • The non-USD countries’ currencies identified – Australia (AUD), Canada (CAD), Switzerland (CHF), New Zealand (NZD), and Singapore (SGD), respectively – may not be ‘last men standing’ in lieu of other, more stable governance in time, the ultimate judge herewith – as in all else – is up to you

Comment:  Please note that some, including Nouriel ‘Dr. Doom’ Roubini, would seem to start with currency diversification of a sort – CHF, JPY, & USD – and, possibly, pass on bullion, etc. altogether.

• This diversity of currencies suggests to ‘Fork of major, social dislocation approaching societal subsidence

• While diverse, non-USD paper would be more convenient to possess [read: more certain by force of its personal possession), its transactability and convertibility in troubled times would seem problematic

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